Due Date: May 29, 2026

Submit your lab here.

Problem 1: Design a Synthetic Control Study

Propose a synthetic control design to estimate the effect of Trump’s 2016 election on US carbon emissions. Specify:

  • Treated unit, donor pool, outcome variable, predictors.

  • Pre‑treatment period and post‑treatment period.

  • What are the key assumptions?

Problem 2: Implement with Synth

Load the data (you may need to assemble from World Bank or other sources). Use dataprep and synth to construct the synthetic US and estimate the effect. Plot the path.

Problem 3: Placebo Tests

Run placebo tests by applying the same method to each donor country (in‑space placebo). Create a plot showing the gap for the US and all placebos. Calculate the p‑value as the proportion of placebos with a post‑treatment gap as large as the US.

###Problem 4: Sensitivity Analysis Drop one donor at a time and re‑estimate. Does the result change substantially? Discuss the robustness of your findings.